WHERE IS THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC? WHY THE FULL LOCKDOWN?

WHERE IS THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC? WHY THE FULL LOCKDOWN? ANNUAL TOTAL DEATHS IN ALBERTA AND CANADA SHOW NOTHING UNUSUAL TO 30June2020 Allan MacRae, B.A.Sc., M.Eng., April 3, 2021

From the total deaths plotted for Alberta and Canada, there were NO significant excess total deaths to 30June2020, and so there was NO justification for the incredibly costly Covid-19 lockdown, which is estimated to have caused 10 to 100 times more current and future harm than the Covid-19 illness.  

From the total deaths plotted for Alberta and Canada, there were NO significant excess total deaths to 30June2020, and so there was NO justification for the incredibly costly Covid-19 lockdown, which is estimated to have caused 10 to 100 times more current and future harm than the Covid-19 illness.  

The important question is why the lockdowns were ever enacted, and why the tried-and-tested Alberta Emergency Management Plan was tossed out and a young medical officer given the impossible task of managing the alleged pandemic – that in the first half of 2020 was a hugely exaggerated, false crisis.

In addition to needlessly destroying the economy, the impacts of the lockdown continue to cause harm:

• Hospitals were emptied for ~2 months to make room for a “tsunami of Covid-19 cases” THAT NEVER HAPPENED;
• Cancer tests, surgeries and other needed medical procedures were delayed and backlogged;
• Deaths from opioid overdoses more than doubled, resulting in an increase of tens of thousands of years-of-life-lost;
• Societal problems including substance abuse, family violence, poverty, and mental illness all increased;
• The education system was disrupted and the harm to students will continue for years.

There is ample evidence that lockdowns and masking had little impact on Covid-19 mortality. Sweden and South Dakota that did not lock down had similar or better mortality outcomes to those that did.

In fact, the lockdowns encouraged the longevity of the Covid-19 illness and the development of more deadly variants. Most flu’s die out in the summer season, but lockdowns and masking allowed Covid-19 to survive through the summer. The Covid-19 problems since 30June2020 with renewed contagion and more dangerous variants were enhanced by the lockdowns – the lockdowns were a total debacle.

Furthermore, the incessant testing and reporting of positive PCR tests as “cases” is harmful nonsense, needlessly creating fear and bad policy. A “case” exists NOT from a positive test, which is often asymptomatic, but from a real illness that requires treatment.

I correctly concluded that the Covid-19 lockdowns were a huge error in early March 2020, and published that conclusion on 21&22March2020. All we needed to do, which I published at that time, was over-protect the very elderly and infirm (which we failed to do) and get everyone else back to work and school. The data shows that the lockdowns were not justified and were hugely harmful.

Alberta and Canada are now in a far worse situation than if we had done nothing – no lockdowns, no masking, etc. How do we get out of the needless mess our governments have created? First, stop reacting in panic to overblown test results and other scary propaganda. Adults should take 4000IU of Vitamin D3 daily. Cease all lockdowns, masking and distancing measures now. Get everyone back to work and school.

Let’s walk out into the sunshine and get back to enjoying our lives.

Regards, Allan MacRae, B.A.Sc., M.Eng.

Notes on the Data

The data is from Statista.com, a private company, which sourced its data from Statistics Canada.

At 30June2020 the population of Alberta was 4,421,876 and that of Canada was 37,742,154.

Alberta has a younger population than Canada and a significantly lower death rate per capita.

The upward slope in both plots reflects increasing populations and the aging of those populations.

After a high-mortality-winter like 2014-2015, the subsequent year is typically lower-than-trend, because there are fewer very-elderly-and-infirm remaining to die the next winter. The reverse is true after a low-mortality winter, such that the total mortality numbers tend to oscillate above and below the trend line.

Data from other countries may show similar results. The abysmal quality of Covid-19 data from some countries, such as the USA, makes analysis difficult. It is clear that many USA deaths from other causes have been falsely attributed to Covid. It is also clear that the panicked response by so many countries to a relatively mild flu, which was only dangerous to the very elderly and infirm, destroyed the credibility of health authorities around the world. The Covid-19 lockdown did much more harm than the illness.