UNPRECEDENTED!!! THE GROUNDHOG DIED!

A groundhog died a year ago November near by back steps. It was followed by the coldest January to February (and snowiest) on record since 1895 here in the northeast and southeast Canada. Yes official government sources in both countries forecast a warm winter.

Sunrise's Swansong

Sad news has come from Canada. The cute and cuddly woodchuck “Winnipeg Willow” expired early on Saturday, January 30. Groundhog Day willow-groundhog

Unconfirmed reports state that Winnipeg Willow was seen drinking heavily on Friday night, and was heard screaming, “I can’t take it any more, I tell you! I’m vermin! I break horses legs with my holes, and can demolish an entire vegetable garden’s worth of spring seedlings in one night! My Momma didn’t raise me to be no teddy bear! But for five years I’ve had to put up with this @%$#&^%,  @#(**&  @#$$^%. I can’t take it! Don’t they know the only time a woodchuck is ever good is in a stew?”

The caretaker could not be reached for comment.

The news that the groundhog died apparently set off panic in Canada’s large community of Global  Warming Alarmists, who have stampeded to the southern border, making it hard for our reporter…

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‘Climate change’ lawyers quietly lay groundwork for EPA takeover of U.S. energy

By Michael Bashtach

Environmentalist lawyers have been pushing a legal theory that would give the Environmental Protection Agency cover to regulate every facet of state energy policy — effectively eliminating states’ authority to craft their own regulations.

“Buried in the Clean Air Act is an extremely powerful mechanism that effectively gives EPA carte blanche to tell states to make drastic cuts to their emissions,” Brian Potts, a partner at the law firm Foley & Lardner wrote in Politico Monday.

“This provision, which can now be used thanks to the completion of the Paris climate deal, raises important questions about national sovereignty and states’ rights — questions that Republicans would undoubtedly use to try and kill such a proposal,” Potts wrote. “But the benefits of using this mechanism dwarf those concerns.”

Potts is referring to Section 115 of the Clean Air Act. Liberal legal scholars argue the Paris global warming treaty has triggered this little-known provision of federal law, and now the EPA can launch a full takeover of states’ environmental regulatory agendas.

Section 115 of the Clean Air Act provides an untapped but potent opportunity for achieving many of the United States’ long-term climate change goals,” 13 liberal legal experts wrote in a January brief published by the Institute for Policy Integrity.

Several lawyers working for various environmental law groups want the EPA to use this provision to implement a nationwide cap-and-trade system. Ever since the defeat of cap-and-trade in Congress in 2010, environmentalists have been looking for legal loopholes for the EPA to use to unilaterally impose cap-and-trade on the U.S.economy.

“EPA and the states could implement a Section 115 regime with less difficulty than the current … approach,” the lawyers wrote, “and could instead combine multiple sectors and source types in a single rulemaking that could establish a nationwide, market-based emissions reduction program.”

‘We Saw This Coming’

Attorney Chris Horner isn’t surprised by the arguments coming from these environmental law groups. Horner says President Barack Obama has always sought to use the United Nations agreement in Paris to further his regulatory agenda.

“As we have made plain all along to any who cared to listen, the administration’s intention behind agreeing to the Paris deal was quite transparently to create an argument and a trap for successive congresses and administrations to impose ever-tighter EPA energy rationing rules in the name of catastrophic man-made global warming,” Horner, an attorney with the Energy & Environmental Legal Institute, told The Daily Caller News Foundation.

Horner has led the charge against the EPA’s so-called Clean Power Plan, filing lawsuits and uncovering emails showing the agency’s cozy relationship with environmental activists hoping to push more regulations on businesses. Now, Horner has turned his attention to uncovering the legal implications of Obama’s agreeing to cut U.S. emissions.

“Unlike previous global warming treaties like Kyoto, which had a finite life, Paris — which obviously a treaty on its face — includes an evergreen provision promising new rules every five years,” Horner said, adding the Obama administration is already using the Paris agreement as legal precedent to block challenges by states to EPA rules.

“Going forward, expect those arguments in court and in the media echo chamber to help shield EPA’s rules, and to compel more rules every five years,” Horner said. “‘We’ve promised the world!’ Except, only Obama promised them.”

The Path To EPA Rule

Legal scholars say there are two conditions that need to be satisfied before the EPA can take over state regulatory decisions.

First, EPA needs findings from an international agency showing American pollution is harming public health in other countries. Carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas blamed for global warming, has been listed as a pollutant by the EPA.

“The many reports put out by the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change over the past few decades meet this requirement,” Potts argued. “The U.S. is one of the top greenhouse gas emitters in the world, and its pollution undoubtedly endangers public health and welfare in many other countries.”

Next, EPA must show a foreign country that’s harmed by U.S. emissions has given America “essentially the same rights with respect to the prevention … of air pollution occurring in that country,” according to Potts. This is where the recent United Nations agreement comes into play.

“The Paris agreement satisfies this reciprocity requirement because there are now nearly 190 countries planning to reduce their emissions, at least in part, to protect one another’s health and welfare,” Potts wrote.

Potts even argued the fact that the Paris agreement isn’t legally-binding doesn’t matter. In his words, “nothing in Section 115 requires such enforceability.”

But the Paris agreement can still be derailed by the Senate, even though it’s not seen as a traditional treaty. The Senate can still assert its constitutional power over treaties to derail the agreement before Obama signs it.

“It is the complete failure by the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations to do its job, choosing instead by inaction to cede its shared constitutional role in the treaty process to be one that exists at the pleasure of the president,” Horner said. “Now it is time for others to take over.”

“If the Senate as a whole does not provide its Art. II ‘advice’ — that Paris requires ‘consent’ to mean anything to anyone — prior to the president’s planned “Mother Earth Day” signature, we might as well disband the committee and agree with Sec. Kerry that the treaty process is dead, that binding us into perpetual, unpopular schemes is now a unilateral function of the executive,” he added.

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2016/02/01/climate-change-lawyers-quietly-lay-groundwork-for-epa-takeover-of-us-energy-sector/#ixzz3zIWZMLIB
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Recap of the Historic El Nino Mega storm

By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, AMS Fellow

 

MEGASTORM
NASA Satellite shows clouds off the coast and heavy snow on land

Often in El Ninos, the winter gets off to a gentle start. December was that including record warm Christmas day. El Ninos like this one turn mean instead of green starting in late January, especially in the Mid Atlantic states.

Remember last year in a weaker El Nino, the green mild start ended abruptly with a big snow the last week of the month and 100 inches fell in the following 39 days. February was the coldest and snowiest on record here. January to March was the coldest ever for the northeast states since records began in 1895 according to NOAA. It followed what had been the 11th coldest winter in the northeast and 2nd coldest March on record here in this part of New England.

This year, arctic air invaded the central and east last week and met up with a classic El Nino storm moving through the south. Snow and ice developed in Arkansas east to Georgia and then the storm turned north. 36 hours of heavy snows set all time records in places. In most cities, more snow fell in one storm than usually occur in the entire season.

Central Park NYC recorded 26.8“, 2nd behind 26.9” in 2006. JFK airport had a record 30.5 inches. Philadelphia reported 22.4″, which was the 6th heaviest in a two-day period in records back to the 1870s.

Screen Shot 2016-01-31 at 5.39.42 AM

In the DC area, Reagan Airport had an unofficial (the snow board and ruler was lost in the snow) 19.4″ inches. second most behind the Knickerbocker storm of 1922 (which collapsed the Knickerbocker theatre).

KnickerbockerInterior

Inside of the Knickerbocker Theatre after the collapse

The White House had 22 inches. Baltimore had 29.2″ the most ever for a single storm and Dulles had 29.3

The Wall Street Journal estimated the storm might produce $16Billion in lost output to the economy.

Predictably, there is talk this is the result of climate change, formerly known as global warming. They forget the UN, the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) (Environmentalists) that now control most universities in the northeast and NOAA in their reports for the EPA had all predicted snow are becoming increasingly rare in the major metropolitan areas. See this fact check by 14 PhD U.S and Canadian scientists on the UCS claims.

Instead, the major cities have been blitzed with heavy snows last few decades, especially the last 10 years. NOAA tracks major metropolitan snow events in the east since the 1950s. The last decade through last winter has amazed with 25 high impact storms (we obviously added a new one this year…and more are likely to follow).

 

NESIS STORMS DECADAL

The correlation between heavy snow winters and colder than normal temperatures is very high.

This December was warm and SNOWLESS. It turned much colder this month and the mega storm followed. In many El Ninos, the snows have a very sharp northern edge and indeed we had no snow even as areas to the south were hit hard. That may happen a few times but chances are we will see one or two events that impact us too.

But aren’t we dealing with the warmest year ever for the earth? No both surface based data and satellites showed no warming for over 18 years. This inconvenient fact sent scientists scurrying into panels at the annual professional society meetings the last two years, trying to explain why. If their theories fail, the $10s of billions in grant money could dry up. Though we have shown in peer review papers how natural variations in the oceans, solar and volcanic activity can explain all the bumps and changes the last 120 years, they don’t want to open up that Pandora’s box.

The solution instead was to have NOAA and NASA adjust the surface data they control, by adjusting old years colder.

2016-01-10-06-45-38

They then called into question the independently derived satellite global temperatures, which both NOAA and NASA a decade ago said clearly were the most trustworthy. That is because the satellite and weather balloon data were exposing their models’ and theory’s obvious failures and their politically driven adjustments to land surface data.

MODEL FAILURE

Why don’t we hear that in the media? Environmental reporters in the media have an agenda, and their Society of Environmental Journalism even has a handbook that tells them to not tell you the whole story and how to attack and discredit any scientists who don’t agree with their view. It is a primer on global warming advocacy journalism.

Having been an environmentalist and conservationist myself, I attended their annual meeting in 2007 and was appalled at what I heard and saw. Dr. Patrick Moore, Ph.D ecologist and co-founder of Greenpeace reacted the same way to radical activists that hijacked his organization. He left the organization. See a brief video here by Patrick Moore https://youtu.be/RkdbSxyXftc. Nobel laureate Ivar Giaeve presents here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCy_UOjEir0

At Weatherbell, our 4300 clients include weather enthusiasts, energy and agriculture traders, winter weather related businesses, retail and transportation pay us to give them accurate short and long-term forecasts and don’t care what we believe about climate or politics (which these days are intertwined). Eisenhower warned about the risk of this kind of political control over science in his farewell address to the nation remembered for his military industrial complex concerns:

“The prospect of domination of the nation’s scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present – and is gravely to be regarded.”

We at Weatherbell correctly warned the 2013/14 winter would be historic near the Great Lakes 7 months in advance when the government forecasts even at the end of November were for a warm winter. Last year we warned the coldest and snowiest weather would shift to the northeast, where again the government forecast warmth. Mild weather will give way to cold again next week. We don’t expect a repeat of last year for extreme snow or cold here in the northeast, but more real winter is likely to return especially to our south.

Hayhoe : Northeast Winters Becoming Less Snowy

Posted on by

When Katharine Hayhoe isn’t lying about Texas drought, she is busy lying about snow in the Northeast.

Screenshot 2016-01-23 at 11.06.24 AM-down

The-Changing-Northeast-Climate.pdf

Mayors stupid enough to listen to Katharine Hayhoe are likely to end up unemployed.

Screenshot 2016-01-23 at 11.19.58 AM

And how is her Texas drought working out?

Screenshot 2016-01-23 at 11.15.09 AM

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Colder Winters Mean More Snow

To anyone with a higher IQ than a turnip, it should be obvious that snow is associated with cold. But Michael Mann and Kevin Trenberth apparently don’t.

Colder winters in New York tend to have more snow. Warmer winters tend to have less snow. All ten of New York’s snowiest winters had below normal or normal temperatures.

Screenshot 2016-01-23 at 09.52.17 AM

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NOTE:

There has been no decline in winter snows in winter but a dramatic increase in the number of high impact snowstorms. Of course, the warmists are trying to blame more snow now on global warming because warm air causes more moisture.

Climate Fables vs. Climate Facts

 #1) “Weather turning more extreme?   On the contrary, 2012/13/14 saw tornadoes dwindling, 2014 fewest-ever (annals from 1950), 2013 sank to fewest Atlantic hurricanes since 1983 (http://www.climatedepot.com/2013/12/27/2013-shatters-the-record-for-fewest-tornadoes-15-lower-than-previous-record/ & http://icecap.us/index.php/go/faqs-and-myths#3). By contrast, past extremes include 1888, when NY City had a 2-foot blizzard (March) and a longest-ever 14-day heat wave (June) (http://www.examiner.com/article/weather-history-june-26-record-temps-storms-tornadoes-wind-snow-floods), 1900 (Sept.), when a hurricane destroyed Galveston, Texas, killing 8,000 – the biggest natural disaster in U.S. history, 1908 (Feb.), when Indian Lake (in NY’s Adirondack Mts.) – then as now free of Urban Heat Island asphalt, cars & tall buildings – plunged to its so far coldest -42F/-41.1C, 1911 (July), when Indian Lake soared to its so far hottest 103F/39.4C…while Painter, Wyoming crashed to a U.S. lowest-ever-in-July 10F/-12.2C, as well as 1913, when Death Valley, California sizzled to a world-record 134F/56.7C (http://www.britannica.com/blogs/2012/10/hottest-place-earth-hint-not-libya/).

#2) “Polar ice shrinking?   Arctic ice rebounded in 2013 to ~160% of the cyclical low hit in 2012 as a result of the mostly warm phase of the Atlantic’s 15-20-year cycle, due to turn predominantly cold by ~ 2020. Antarctic ice keeps setting expansion records, as 99% of Antarctica (minus volcanic Palmer Peninsula) has for 30-plus years been chilling down, currently assisted by the Pacific, which in 2007 entered the cool phase of its 25-30-year cycle (Pacific = 167% Atlantic’s size).

In1912 explorer Mawson found Antarctic Commonwealth Bay ice-free (http://www.youtube.com /watch?v=k-9yJ6-6aEs). Antarctic ice has since grown massively…so Christmas Eve 2013 (Antarctic summer) a ship sent to showcase “disappearing” ice got ice-bound (below) in Commonwealth Bay

IT

(http://www.barrelstrength.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/ait_mawson.jpg http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/global-warming-activists-wanted-to-prove-sea-ice-was-melting-but-became-trapped-by-an-inconvenient-truth/story-fni0cwl5-1226793048790)…and even rescue icebreakers were trapped (http://rt.com/news/rescue-icebreakers-antarctic-us-195/).

#3) “Snows diminishing?  No: We’ve already had more East Coast snowstorms this decade (2010’s) than in any before (annals since 1950’s), 4 of the 5 snowiest winters for the Northern Hemisphere hit from 2007/8 through 2013/14, 2012 saw first snow in 112 years freak Egypt’s camels (http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/cairo-snow-egyptian-capital-sees-2923418), 2013 had first-ever May snow down even to Arkansas (latitude of North African coast), in 2014 Japan doubled its old heaviest-ever (http://www.euronews.com/nocomment/2014/02/17/japan-hit-by-heavy-snowstorms/)(http://www.weather.com/news/snow-japan-snarls-traffic-deaths-20140216), Iran got its worst in 50 years (http://www.euronews.com/2014/02/04/worst-snowstorm-for-half-a-century-hits-northern-iran), on 9/11/2014 Rapid City, S.Dakota shov(el)ed 2 days forward its 1970 earliest-ever snow, Boston’s 110.6” for 2014/15 tops all [annals fr. 1871]). 2014/15’s New England blitz may have been worst since 1717 when folks could leave home only from 2nd floor lee side, implying depths up to 8′ or more. Feb. 2015 students were jumping from 2nd-floor windows into deep snow.” (Weatherbell.com)

#4)   “U.S. & world warming”?   No, National Weather Service (NWS) confirms: Since 1994 Continental U.S. is trending colder in all climatic regions!   Boston’s 2015 Feb. was 2nd-coldest since 1871, Buffalo’s, Cleveland’s & Chicago’s were coldest-ever since 1884, ’71 & ’72. At Saranac Lake, Feb. & March have dished ~43% & ~68% of new cold records since just year 2000! Fewer U.S. heat records set since the 1930’s: 39 pre-1960, just 11 post-1960, but the ’30’s set 23 of our 50 state all-time-highs!   Midwest 90F+ heat is down for ~120 yrs and hit all-time low in 2014 (Weatherbell.com 07/25/2014), all the while CO-2 has climbed and thus bared its irrelevance:

90DAYS

NWS books still flaunt a phantom Tucson, AZ (http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/twc/) 1990 “all-time high” of 117F/47.2C…which the NY Times revealed as artifact of a malfunctioning thermometer (http://www.nytimes.com/1991/08/18/us/in-tucson-it-s-not-the-heat-it-s-the-thermometers.html): a case of Orwellian “Ministry of Truth” data-cooking.

Since the 1940’s, the U.S. has had more cold than heat records, as on Jan. 16, 2009: That day, an Arctic invasion set new all-time-lows in Maine (-50F/-45.6 vs. 1925’s -48F/-44.4C), reported by U.S. Geodetic Survey, then accepted by NWS, and in Illinois (-37F/-38.3C vs. 1999’s -36F/-37.8C), notched on an airport instrument certified just the day before…yet nixed by NWS, trashing science to spare an Illinoisian embarrassment on the eve of his Inauguration.

During an Alaska-wide 2012 record cold wave, a Jim River, AK observer’s battle-tested Vantage Pro2, rated to at least -40/F/C, gamely soldiered on in fast-plunging temps until at 6:34 p.m., with 14 sunless hours to go, its sensor surrendered at -79F/-60.6C. NWS nixed this cold record, too, dissed the thermometer as “not rated for temperature colder than 40 below”…yet its own official instrument at Prospect Creek, site of the 1971 U.S. all-time-low of -80F/-61.1C and just 0.9 miles from Jim River, is also rated to just -40F (http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/01/30/bitter-cold-records-broken-in-alaska-all-time-coldest-record-nearly-broken-but-murphys-law-intervenes/). What justifies NWS use of taxpayer $$ for equipment sure to ensure Prospect Creek will never “officially” break the old -80F record?

Overseas, the events described in #3 above as well as, for example, Germany’s National Weather Service confirm temperatures are heading down.

White House, Greens target Atlantic fishing grounds

“The sacred cod.”  On March 17th, 1784, Mr. John Rowe of Boston arose from his seat in the Hall of Representatives at the Old State House, and offered the following motion: “That leave might be given to hang up the representation of a cod fish in the room where the House sit[s], as a memorial of the importance of the Cod-Fishery to the welfare of the Commonwealth….”

A symbolic cod was placed in the hall, and was later moved to the new State House building in 1798. There it has remained ever since.

Fishermen and seafood-dependent communities in New England are Fishing fleetbattening down the hatches, fearing that an Obama administration move to create a giant Atlantic Marine Monument will spell the end to their way of life.

Led by Earthjustice, the Conservation Law Center, Natural Resources Defense Council, National Geographic Society, and the Pew Charitable Trust, environmentalists are urging the White House to use the 1906 Antiquities Act to designate a 6,000-square-mile area in the Gulf of Maine and off the coast of Massachusetts as a National Monument. The area is home to spectacular geological formations, including Cashes Ledge, an underwater mountain system, and the New England Coral Canyons and Seamounts, an undersea chain of formations about 150 miles off the Massachusetts coast.

“We have an opportunity to permanently protect two of our nation’s greatest ocean treasures, right off our coast,” Priscilla Brooks, the Conservation Law Foundation’s director of ocean conservation, told the Associated Press (September 13, 2015).

National monument designations come with severe land- and, Gloucester fishermanin this case, sea-use restrictions. For over four hundred years, the area targeted by green activists and the Obama administration has been one of the richest fishing grounds in North America.. The region’s fishermen fear that the monument could spell the end of their industry and they suspect that this is the ultimate goal of environmentalists, in and out of government.

“Excluding Commercial Fishing Activity from Certain Segments of the Ocean”

This view is shared by Maine Gov. Paul LePage (R). “These National Marine Monuments serve only one purpose – excluding commercial fishing activity from certain segments of the ocean,” he wrote in a letter to Obama in August. Fishermen are particularly concerned about being denied access to the seafood-rich Cashes Ledge. Robert Vanasse, executive director of the fishing advocacy group Saving Seafood, told the AP that the monument proposal ignores protections already in place in Cashes Ledge, including a prohibition on dredging and bottom trawling.

Marine monuments – there are currently four in the Pacific, and none in the Atlantic – are under the jurisdiction of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). NOAA typically bans commercial fishing, mining, and dredging in marine monuments.

Every bit as troubling as the monument designation itself is the use of the Antiquities Act to bring it about. Originally crafted to protect Native American sites of historical and cultural significance, the Antiquities Act has been used by the Clinton, Bush, and Obama administrations to declare an area a National Monument for environmental reason via executive action, with little if any local input. “There shouldn’t be a couple of people sitting around a table in the West Wing deciding this kind of thing,” Saving Seafood’s Vanasse told the AP.

A decision on the monument designation is expected in early 2016. Entering his last year in office, and determined to leave behind an environmental “legacy” to augment his unilateral, anti-fossil fuel action on climate change, Obama can be counted on to give NOAA the go ahead to designate the Atlantic Marine Monument.

– See more at: http://www.cfact.org/2016/01/15/white-house-greens-target-atlantic-fishing-grounds/?utm_source=CFACT%20Updates&utm_campaign=f04a20e0b6-Then_they_came_for_the_fishermen1_15_2016&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_a28eaedb56-f04a20e0b6-270220145#sthash.XVVWSTxc.dpuf

Whither global food shortage predictions?

By E. Calvin Beisner
Originally Published in the Washington Times

Less than two years ago, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which wants us to trust its prognostications about conditions a century from now enough to bet trillions on them, warned that global warming threatened global food supplies.

But last week The New Indian Express reported, “International food prices dipped by 19 percent in the last year, the fourth consecutive annual fall .”

Stop and think about that for a moment.

In 2014 the IPCC’s Working Group II warned that global warming threatened food supplies. Less than two years later, global news was of a glut of food supplies sufficient to suppress prices by a fifth.

And food prices have been falling for four years — two years before the panel’s warning.

Can the IPCC claim its warnings were about the distant future, so what has happened in the two years since is irrelevant?

No — not gauging from the reactions of numerous prominent climate professionals:
“The important nuance [in the 2014 warning],” reported CBS, “is how climate change is interacting and exacerbating problems people face today, says Katharine Hayhoe, a Texas Tech University climate scientist .”

“It’s not far-off in the future and it’s not exotic creatures — it’s us and now,” CBS quoted Penn State paleoclimatologist Michael Mann, primary author of the debunked “hockey stick” graph that purported to eliminate evidence of the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age, commenting on the 2014 report.

The Guardian reported, “Climate change has already cut into the global food supply according to a report from the U.N.’s climate science panel.”

“It’s about people now,” said Virginia Burkett, the chief scientist for global change at the U.S. Geological Survey and one of the report’s authors. “It’s more relevant to the man on the street. It’s more relevant to communities because the impacts are directly affecting people — not just butterflies and sea ice.”

“The impacts are already evident in many places in the world. It is not something that is [only] going to happen in the future,” said David Lobell, a professor at Stanford University’s Center for Food Security and the Environment, who devised the models [behind the IPCC report].

“Almost everywhere you see the warming effects have a negative affect [sic] on wheat and there is a similar story for corn as well. These are not yet enormous effects but they show clearly that the trends are big enough to be important,” Mr. Lobell said.

Six months later, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released a synthesis report reiterating the same message. Justin Gillis (with whom I have a little personal experience) reported on it for The New York Times:

“The gathering risks of climate change are so profound that they could stall or even reverse generations of progress against poverty and hunger the global situation is becoming more acute . Failure to reduce [carbon-dioxide] emissions, the group of scientists and other experts found, could threaten society with food shortages .

“The report contained the group’s most explicit warning yet about the food supply, saying that climate change had already become a small drag on overall global production, and could become a far larger one if emissions continued unchecked.

“Under the worst-case scenarios, factors like high food prices and intensified weather disasters would most likely leave poor people worse off. In fact, the report said, that has already happened to a degree.”

But Bloomberg reported on Jan. 10 that “Stockpiles of corn and soybeans in the U.S., the world’s largest grower, probably were the biggest ever on Dec. 1, and wheat inventories were the highest in five years .”

Well, maybe that’s just in the United States — an anomaly? No. American stockpile growth was driven partly by a strong dollar but also by “rising production by other suppliers.”

Instead of declining, as the IPCC’s reports led us to expect, world grain (which provides 65 percent of human caloric intake) production rose by 10 percent from the 2008-09 harvest year to the 2014-15 harvest year.

This is no big surprise to those who note that, contrary to the IPCC’s computer climate models’ predictions, satellite global temperature data (the most reliable we have) show no global warming for at least the 18 years and eight months — from May 1997 through December 2015.

Maybe, just maybe, it’s time to stop the war on fossil fuels, the developing world’s best source of the abundant, affordable, reliable energy essential to rising and staying out of poverty.

E. Calvin Beisner is founder and national spokesman of the Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation.

“Almost everywhere you see the warming effects have a negative affect [sic] on wheat and there is a similar story for corn as well. These are not yet enormous effects but they show clearly that the trends are big enough to be important,” Mr. Lobell said.

Six months later, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released a synthesis report reiterating the same message. Justin Gillis (with whom I have a little personal experience) reported on it for The New York Times:

“The gathering risks of climate change are so profound that they could stall or even reverse generations of progress against poverty and hunger the global situation is becoming more acute . Failure to reduce [carbon-dioxide] emissions, the group of scientists and other experts found, could threaten society with food shortages .

“The report contained the group’s most explicit warning yet about the food supply, saying that climate change had already become a small drag on overall global production, and could become a far larger one if emissions continued unchecked.

“Under the worst-case scenarios, factors like high food prices and intensified weather disasters would most likely leave poor people worse off. In fact, the report said, that has already happened to a degree.”

But Bloomberg reported on Jan. 10 that “Stockpiles of corn and soybeans in the U.S., the world’s largest grower, probably were the biggest ever on Dec. 1, and wheat inventories were the highest in five years .”

Well, maybe that’s just in the United States — an anomaly? No. American stockpile growth was driven partly by a strong dollar but also by “rising production by other suppliers.”

Instead of declining, as the IPCC’s reports led us to expect, world grain (which provides 65 percent of human caloric intake) production rose by 10 percent from the 2008-09 harvest year to the 2014-15 harvest year.

This is no big surprise to those who note that, contrary to the IPCC’s computer climate models’ predictions, satellite global temperature data (the most reliable we have) show no global warming for at least the 18 years and eight months — from May 1997 through December 2015.

Maybe, just maybe, it’s time to stop the war on fossil fuels, the developing world’s best source of the abundant, affordable, reliable energy essential to rising and staying out of poverty.

E. Calvin Beisner is founder and national spokesman of the Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation.

Temperature Trends: PDO And Solar Correlate Better Than CO2

Note: This post by Anthony Watts in 2008 reviewed a paper I had posted on Icecap.us which did a comparative analysis of CO2 versus other natural factors and temperatures. Other follow up papers have been done, peer reviewed  and published since then and another set is under review for an upcoming book for Elsevier. They show natural factors drive climate changes.

Anthony Watts / January 25, 2008

Note: This is my analysis of a paper by Joe D’Aleo, I’ve tried to simplify and explain certain terms where possible so that  it can reach the broadest audience of readers. You can read the entire paper here.  See updated paper on Academic EDU here (note this too has been updated for the new volume).

Joe D’Aleo, an AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist, one of the founders of The Weather Channel and who operates the website ICECAP took it upon himself to do an analysis of the newly released USHCN2 surface temperature data set and compare it against measured trends of CO2, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Solar Irradiance. to see which one matched better.

It’s a simple experiment; compare the trends by running an R2  correlation on the different data sets. The result is a coefficient of determination that tells you how well the trend curves match. When the correlation is 1.0, you have a perfect match between two curves. The lower the number, the lower the trend correlation.

Understanding R2correlation
R2Coefficient Match between data trends
1.0 Perfect
.90 Good
.50 Fair
.25 Poor
 0 or negative no match at all

If CO2 is the main driver of climate change this last century, it stands to reason that the trend of surface temperatures would follow the trend of CO2, and thus the Rcorrelation between the two trends would be high. Since NCDC has recently released the new USHCN2 data set for surface temperatures, which promises improved detection and removal of false trends introduced by change points in the data, such as station moves, it seemed like an opportune time to test the correlation.

At the same time,  Rcorrelation tests were run on other possible drivers of climate; Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and Total Solar Irradiance (TSI).

First lets look at the surface temperature record. Here we see the familiar plot of temperature over the last century as it has been plotted by NASA GISS:

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The temperature trend is unmistakably upwards, and the change over the last century is about +0.8°C.

Now lets look at the familiar carbon dioxide graph, known as the Keeling Curve, which plots atmospheric CO2 concentration measure at the Mauna Loa Observatory:

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CDIAC (Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center – Oak Ridge National Lab) also has a data set for this that includes CO2 data back to the last century (1895) extracted from ice core samples.  That CO2 data set was plotted against the new USHCN2 surface temperature data as shown below:

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A comparison of the 11year running mean of the USHCN version 2 annual mean temperatures with the running mean of CO2 from CDIAC. An r-squared of 0.44 was found.

The results were striking to say the least. An Rcorrelation of only 0.44 was determined, placing it between fair and poor in the fit between the two data sets.

Now lets look at other potential drivers of climate,  TSI and PDO.

Scafetta and West (2007) have suggested that the total solar irradiance (TSI) is a good proxy for the total solar effect which may be responsible for at least 50% of the warming since 1900. To test it, again the same Rcorrelation was run on the two data sets.

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In this case, the correlation of TSI to the surface temperature record is better than with CO2, producing an Rcorrelation of 0.57 which is between fair and good.

Finally. Joe ran the Rcorrelation test on PDO, the Pacfic Decadal Oscillation. He writes

We know both the Pacific and Atlantic undergo multidecadal cycles the order of 50 to 70 years. In the Pacific this cycle is called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. A warm Pacific (positive PDO Index) as we found from 1922 to 1947 and again 1977 to 1997 has been found to be accompanied by more El Ninos, while a cool Pacific more La Ninas (in both cases a frequency difference of close to a factor of 2). Since El Ninos have been shown to lead to global warming and La Ninas global cooling, this should have an affect on annual mean temperature trends in North America.

 This PDO and TSI to surface temperature connection has also been pointed out in a previous post I made here, for former California State Climatologist, Jim Goodridge. PDO affects the USA more than the Atlantic cycle (AMO) because we have prevailing westerly wind flow.

Globally both the PDO and AMO warm phases lead to more global warmth while the cold phases a cooler globe both on an annual basis.

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Here is how Joe did the data correlation:

Since the warm modes of the PDO and AMO both favor warming and their cold modes cooling, I thought the sum of the two might provide a useful index of ocean induced warming/cooling for the hemisphere (and US). I standardized the two data bases and summed them and correlated with the USHCN data, again using a 11 point smoothing as with the CO2 and TSI.

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This was the jackpot correlation with the highest value of r-squared (0.83!!!). An Rcorrelation of 0.83 would be considered “good”. This indicates that PDO and our surface temperature is more closely tied together than CO2 to surface temperature by almost a factor of 2.

But he didn’t stop there. He also looked at the last decade where it has been commonly opined that the Top 11 Warmest Years On Record Have All Been In Last 13 Years to see how well the correlation was in the last decade:

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Since temperatures have stabilized in the last decade, we looked at the correlation of the CO2 with HCSN data. Greenhouse theory and models predict an accelerated warming with the increasing carbon dioxide.

Instead, a negative correlation between USHCN and CO2 was found in the last decade with an R or Pearson Coefficient of -0.14, yielding an r-squared of 0.02.

According to CO2 theory, we should see long term rise of mean temperatures, and while there may be yearly patterns of weather that diminish the effect of the short term, one would expect to see some sort of correlation over a decade. But it appears that with an Rcorrelation of only 0.02, there isn’t any match over the past ten years.

As another test, this analysis was also done on Britain’s Hadley Climate Research Unit (CRU) data and MSU’s (John Christy) satellite temperature data:

To ensure that was not just an artifact of the United States data, we did a similar correlation of the CO2 with the CRU global and MSU lower tropospheric monthlies over the same period. We found a similar non-existent correlation of just 0.02 for CRU and 0.01 for the MSU over troposphere.

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So with Rcorrelations of .01 and .02 what this shows is that the rising CO2 trend does not match the satellite data either.

Here are the different test correlations in a summary table:

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And his conclusion:

Clearly the US annual temperatures over the last century have correlated far better with cycles in the sun and oceans than carbon dioxide. The correlation with carbon dioxide seems to have vanished or even reversed in the last decade.

Given the recent cooling of the Pacific and Atlantic and rapid decline in solar activity, we might anticipate given these correlations, temperatures to accelerate downwards shortly.

 While this isn’t a “smoking gun” it is as close as anything I’ve seen. Time will give us the qualified answer as we have expectations of a lower Solar Cycle 24 and changes in the Pacific now happening.

Note: Another wildcard in the climate is volcanism.

High levels of stratospheric aerosols from major low latitude eruptions that reach high into the stratosphere have been observed to cause a global cooling of up to 0.5C for several years. High latitude volcanoes are usually less powerful but since the stratosphere is lower there, they can have effect on weather including cooling in winters from enhanced polar blocking high pressure (the negative Arctic Oscillation). A low aerosol count in quiet volcanic periods conversely allows more radiation through and supports warming the order of 0.1 to 0.2C. The major eruptions of the early 1980s (Mt. St. Helens and El Chichon) and the early 1990s (Pinatubo and Cerro Hudson can be seen to have caused cooling. After the atmospheric aerosols precipitated out and a strong El Nino occurred, a step change up occurred and was maintained at a higher level by lack of major eruptions.

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References:

US Temperatures and Climate Factors since 1895 , Joeseph D’Aleo, 2008

Multidecadal tendencies in ENSO and Global Temperatures Related to Multidecadal Oscillations, Elsevier, Evidence Based Climate Science, 2014

Persistence in California Weather Patterns,  Jim Goodridge, 2007

Phenomenological reconstructions of the solar signature in the Northern Hemisphere surface temperature records since 1600  Scafetta and West, 2007

The USHCN Version 2 Serial Monthly Dataset, National Climatic Data Center, 2007

 

The heat is on!

Why should Volkswagen be investigated for emission deception, but not government agencies?

Paul Driessen

The heat is on! Not the unusual winter warmth in much of the United States – but the unrelenting heat generated by propaganda and pressure campaigns that the White House, EPA, Big Green and news media are unleashing in the wake of the Paris climate agreement … and as a prelude to the 2016 elections.

A recent Washington Post editorial laid out the strategy. The long-term warming trend is “concerning.” Maybe we can’t blame this year’s strong El Niño “squarely on climate change,” but “one paper” says the number of strong El Niño years could double. Obama’s “landmark” carbon dioxide regulations “played a key role” in securing an “unprecedented” international climate deal that could eventually compel all nations to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, to “avoid serious risks” of climate catastrophes.

Above all, we must “build on 2015’s climate progress.” There must be no backpedalling on the Paris accord, EPA regulations, or replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy. Above all, no “fishing expeditions designed to personally discredit scientists and undermine peer-reviewed research” that supports the elimination of carbon-based fuels. Republican claims are mere “bluster” and “buffoonery.”

Never mind that White House and EPA events, the Paris climate conference, the Vatican climate summit and even Science magazine have offered virtually no forum for numerous scientists who contest claims that humans are causing “dangerous manmade climate change” to present their case or debate alarmist witnesses and officials. Never mind that climate chaos claims look increasingly flimsy.

A fundamental principle is at stake here: policies and rules that affect our lives, livelihoods and living standards must be based on honesty, accountability and verifiable scientific evidence.

The Justice Department has sued Volkswagen on behalf of the Environmental Protection Agency. They want up to $18 billion dollars in penalties, because VW installed special software that caused its diesel cars to emit fewer pollutants during tests used to ensure compliance with emission regulations. The falsified tests allegedly duped American consumers into purchasing 580,000 diesel-powered vehicles.

Federal prosecutors are also conducting criminal probes of Volkswagen and its executives. Countless other civil and criminal investigations and prosecutions have companies and citizens in their crosshairs. Such actions are often warranted, even if the draconian incarceration and monetary penalties are not.

No one should be victimized by fraud or other criminal activities, by private companies – or by government agencies and bureaucrats, or third parties they hire and use to validate their policies.

Equally important, no one forces us to buy a VW or any other car. But when it comes to laws and regulations, we have no choice. Submit, or else. If those rules are based on dishonesty – on emission deception at massive, unprecedented levels in the case of climate – we pay a huge, unacceptable price:

Our taxes support science that may be manipulated and fabricated. More taxes fund regulatory behemoths that target energy producers and energy-dependent industries, while giving billions in subsidies to crony-corporatist allies. Still more tax money is transferred to alarmists like Michael Mannand Jagedish Shukla, who launch vicious attacks on skeptics. And the resulting regulations inflict soaring energy costs that kill jobs and hammer families, companies, hospitals, schools and communities, for few or no benefits.

Congress has every right to investigate this. Indeed, legislators are duty-bound to ferret out fraud and abuse. These are not “fishing expeditions.” They seek to determine the reliability and integrity of data and studies presented to support enormously expensive policies, and ascertain the veracity of government officials and tax-supported scientists who want more power and too often refuse to answer questions.

EPA and Justice Department investigators demand full disclosure and tolerate no obstruction, obfuscation or misleading information. This is fitting and proper. But why should we and our elected representatives have to tolerate such actions by heavy-handed regulators who want to control every aspect of our lives, but routinely hide their data and methodologies, and refuse to be held accountable?

There are good reasons to doubt their climate chaos assertions, and even their integrity. What little warming our planet has experienced in the past 19 years is measured in hundredths of a degree, especially when adjusted for the El Niño effect that transfers warm surface Pacific Ocean temperatures to the atmosphere. The warming that has the Post, Mr. Obama and EPA in a tizzy began around 1850, as Earth emerged from a 500-year-long Little Ice Age – which by happy coincidence for climate alarmists also marks the beginning of the Industrial Revolution that they blame for most warming in recent decades.

Hurricanes and tornadoes, storms, droughts, polar ice and sea levels are all within the realm of historic experience. There is nothing “unprecedented” about them, and certainly nothing to justify shutting down our carbon-based energy system, restructuring our economy, or redistributing our hard-earned wealth to countries that are not bound by any energy and emission reductions agreed to in Paris.

The fracking revolution proves we are not running out of oil or natural gas. That means we have a century or more to develop affordable, reliable replacement energy technologies. It means environmental radicals now have only climate cataclysm hysteria to justify demands that we abandon hydrocarbons. It explains why they’ve concocted the fairytale that CO2 is “acidifying” oceans that are and will remain firmly alkaline, and why they have been in regulatory hyperdrive during Obama’s final years in office.

However, as Secretary of State John Kerry admitted in Paris, even if all the industrialized nations’ CO2 emissions declined to zero, “it wouldn’t be enough [to prevent alleged climate disaster], not when more than 65% of the world’s carbon pollution comes from the developing world.” Even assuming that carbon dioxide does drive climate change, all the costly, job-killing regulations that EPA is imposing would prevent an undetectable 0.018 degrees Celsius (0.032 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century.

Earth’s climate fluctuates regularly. What actual evidence do climate alarmists have that recent changes are dangerous, unprecedented, and due to fossil fuel use? That any warming above 1.5 degrees C (2.7 F) would be catastrophic? (A cooler planet would be much worse for wildlife, people and agriculture.)

What actual evidence do they have that government can control climate and weather by limiting the amount of plant-fertilizing carbon dioxide that humans emit into the atmosphere? That justifies letting anti-energy activists and bureaucrats “fundamentally transform” our entire energy and economic system?

Why do they refuse to present their asserted evidence for all to see – amid robust debate and cross-examination – and try to defend their “97% consensus” science? Why do some of them think “climate deniers” are mentally ill for questioning the manmade climate Armageddon mantra?

President Obama insists that climate change is the biggest problem facing America. Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders seem to agree. They all think Bigger Government is the answer.

The citizenry fundamentally disagrees. One recent Gallup poll found that Americans view our already huge government, the economy, jobs and terrorism as the biggest threats facing our nation. Pollution came in at #23; global warming didn’t even register among 48 listed issues. Another Gallup study found that 69% of all Americans (88% of Republicans) say Big Government is the most serious threat we face.

That is what this year’s elections are all about.

How much bigger (or smaller) will our government become? Who gets to rule your lives: We the People, or another dictatorial president and her army of faceless, unelected, unaccountable bureaucrats? What will the future hold for our lives, liberties, livelihoods and living standards?

Get informed. Get involved. Get to the polls. Better yet, take a page out of the Democrats’ playbook: get to the polls early, vote often, and make sure your dead friends and relatives vote too.

Paul Driessen is senior policy analyst for the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (www.CFACT.org) and author of Eco-Imperialism: Green power – Black death.

Why should Volkswagen be investigated for emission deception, but not government agencies?

Paul Driessen

 

Paul Driessen is senior policy analyst for the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (www.CFACT.org) and author of Eco-Imperialism: Green power – Black death.

Union of Concerned Scientists at UNH Fail Big Time

Reference: UNH reports warn of drastic climate change – April 4, 2014, Fosters Democrat

INTRODUCTION

This report details the nine most relevant claims in the 2014 UNH press release and ‘report’ and provides factual data to refute the basis for those claims.

The authors of the UNH study, while making unfounded statements about the climate, weather, long-term trends and forecasting, do not provide substantial data beyond the flawed forecasts of climate models that have been shown to have failed over the past 20 years.

The data provided in this document refutes these groundless claims are from a variety of scientifically recognized sources and can be accessed through the source references directly.

Here are two responses to claims made about winter warming and decreased snowfall.

CLAIM #6: Extreme cold temperatures may occur less frequently, and extreme cold days may be warmer than in the past.

FACTS:

In the northeast, winters have cooled at a rate of 1.5°F/decade in the last 20 years.

uc1                Source: NCDC Climate at a Glance

Longer term, the winter mean temperatures in Concord, NH shows no trend at all since 1868/69, just the natural cycles associated with ocean cycles (annual temperatures in red with 5 year running mean black dash).

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                             Source: NWS Portland, Maine

New England’s coldest temperature -50°F was equaled in Maine in 2009. 2013/14 was the 4th coldest winter in New Hampshire since 1970 and 2nd coldest March since 1895.

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Source: NOAA NCDC Month in Review March State Rankings

January to March 2015 was even more extreme. In the northeast (10 northeast states plus DC, it tied for the coldest January to March since 1895 with 1904.

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The Union of Concerned Scientists projected that New Hampshire climate would become like North Carolina. This is VERY FAR from the reality. The changes suggest our winters are becoming more like southern Quebec.

  • CLAIM #7:

Warming winters will reduce opportunities for snow- and ice-related recreation (and related economic activity).

FACTS:

The UCS had a special presentation in the late summer of 2007 on Mt. Washington promising a dire future for the winter sports and maple sugar industry due to warming.

That winter all time seasonal snow records were set for snowfall in the northeast from Concord to Caribou (and all through the western US up to Alaska).

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Along the east coast we have seen record setting snow years and 16 major impact snowstorms just 5 years into this decade making this the snowiest decade on record back to the 1950s and beating out the memorable 1960s and the 2000s, which had 10. For the decade ending 2014/15, we had 25 major impact winter storms affecting the heavily populated areas of the east.

UC7                                         NOAA NESIS High Impact Snowstorms

That has not stopped UNH to continue to travel to the state capitol to warn of warming disaster for the ski industry. They did so early last winter I am told after the winter got off a warm, slow snow start.

But then starting in late January, 2014/15 set records for snowfall in Boston (back to1872) and many other locations in the northeast into southeastern Canada.

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In Boston it helped nudge the 10 year running mean of seasonal snow to the highest in the entire record back to the 1880s.

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In Boston, the huge snow piles (some of which lasted to July!) were throwbacks to the historic winter of 1717. Historian David Ludlum wrote “That year, snows had reached five feet in December with drifts of 25 feet in January before one great last assault in late February into early March of 40 to 60 more inches. “The snow was so deep that people could only leave their houses from the second floor, implying actual snow depths of as much as 8 feet or more.”

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“Entire houses were covered over, identifiable only by a thin curl of smoke coming out of a hole in the snow,” the New England Historical Society noted. “In Hampton, N.H., search parties went out after the storms hunting for widows and elderly people at risk of freezing to death.” Sometimes snow would pile so high people would burn “their furniture because they couldn’t get to the woodshed.”

“It wasn’t uncommon for them to lose their bearings and not be able to find the houses,” the society wrote in its account of winter 1717. “People maintained tunnels and paths through the snow from house to house.”

In the Northern Hemisphere from 1967, 4 of the top 5 snowiest years have occurred since 2007/08, and 5 of the top 6 since 2002/03.

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           NOAA Winter Snowcover Extent (Rutgers)

If you look at snowstorms in the last decade versus the prior 5 decades, you see an amazing increase in high impact snows. We have had 25 high population center impact snow events in the last decade compared to 5 to 8 in the prior five ten-year periods. Many of events uncharacteristically have had very high snow to liquid water content with very low temperatures; the opposite of what the UCS, NOAA and UN had indicated would be the case in the era of global warming.

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Environmentalists, like those from the Union of Concerned Scientists at UNH and elsewhere clearly have no skill at predicting the future.