What is happening to the climate?

There is a widespread belief that the increase in carbon dioxide concentrations has caused the world to warm steadily. We are constantly told that this warming will continue and it will be disastrous. Before we accept these statements we should analyse the recent temperature records and the history of past climatic changes.

“Climate change”–more properly referred to as “man-made global warming”–is based on an unproven hypothesis that man-made carbon dioxide causes global warming. The evidence is that CO2 levels have increased steadily but there has been no significant warming of the world for the last 10 to 15 years. This proves that carbon dioxide does not cause dangerous warming.

All the climate models supported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted a steady rise in temperature of 2° to 6° per century caused by increasing concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. They were wrong: all 5 leading temperature records–both surface and satellite–show that temperatures over the last 10 to 15 years have been essentially constant. The figure shows the temperature record from the Hadley Centre in the UK. It shows that there has been no warming over the last 10 years and an insignificant amount of warming over the last 15 years.



CO2 driven warming happens immediately and there is no mechanism that could delay the effect. It is claimed that lack of warming is due to “natural effects” yet none of the IPCC scientists can explain exactly what these large natural causes are. If the models were any good, their predictions would be accurate. According to the IPCC “… the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.” Doesn’t that pretty much say it all? 

The alternative–and much simpler–explanation is that the climate has natural cycles and that we are just over the peak of a cycle and, probably, at the beginning of a decline. Nicola Scafetta, a research scientist at Duke University in the USA, has analysed past climatic cycles and made a model that without any tuning has accurately replicated temperature changes over the last hundred years. It also predicts that cooling is imminent. Don Easterbrook at Western Washington University in the USA and other scientists have carried out similar analyses with similar results. Most of these studies have been ignored or dismissed by the scientists associated with the IPCC.

Studies of sunspot cycles strongly support imminent global cooling. They show that a long sunspot cycle is always followed by cooling. The last cycle lasted 12.5 years and the previous one, 9.5 years. This tells us that about 1° of cooling is to be expected during the current cycle.

Dr Jim Renwick and Dr David Wratt, of NIWA who are lead authors for the IPCC have corresponded with me and appear to accept that the world has not warmed for about 10 years. It appears they do not know why the world is failing to warm in line with the model predictions. Yet they still tell the government that man-made global warming is real and dangerous. Instead of publicly admitting that the world has not warmed as predicted they divert the discussion to other effects that, they claim, demonstrate warming. But the temperature records still say it isn’t happening.

The only rational conclusion is that there is no convincing evidence supporting the hypothesis that man-made carbon dioxide causes dangerous global warming. CO2 is a harmless gas that promotes plant growth and reduces desertification. In spite of this, trillions of dollars have been squandered on renewable energy, emissions trading schemes and carbon trading schemes. Policies that subsidise renewable energy have increased the price of electricity in many countries while the push for biofuels has increased the cost of food in poor countries. The money would have bailed out Greece and Spain with plenty to spare or, better still, it could have been used to provide electricity and clean water for millions of people in developing countries.

Policies based on the belief that CO2 causes dangerous global warming are a huge man-made disaster.

Bryan is a founder member of the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition and an electrical engineer. He and his wife are part owners of a hydro station that earns windfall profits from the Emissions Trading Scheme.


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